Obama and McCain: Fellowship of the Race

After a win in SC that is as stunning in its margin as it is revelatory of the voting public's thinking (very bad news for Hillary), Obama moves on to Super Tuesday states. McCain is running hard in Florida to achieve a lead and some momentum going into Feb. 5th.

But their fates are linked in so many ways. As one goes, so does the other.

If McCain wins FL, then he quickly becomes the ostensible front runner of the GOP. Democrats are increasingly concerned with electability and believe that McCain would capitalize on national dislike of Hillary Clinton and his appeal among independent and moderate Democratic voters to beat Clinton. So, if McCain wins FL, look to better than expected results for Obama, especially among the superdelegates who see the writing on the wall.

From the opposite perspective, if Obama wins the nomination, Republicans know that his appeal among independents and moderates would probably overwhelm Romney. McCain does well against Obama in a general election and may reap the benefits in FL of Republican realism. So, McCain may actually get a bump going into the FL primary.

The double-effect of excitement over a win in SC and the realism that Obama is the competitive Democrat against McCain serves Obama very well going into Super Tuesday. But McCain must win for it to happen.

Once again, FL has the potential to significantly impact a presidential election.